Demography is Destiny

The chart below is derived from the statistics published annually by the Office for National Statistics shows births by ethnicity in England and Wales in the two years of 2014 and 2019.

None of these figures are a sudden blip; they represent a consistent increase, or decrease, or a “steady state” in the intervening years.

You will see that the only categories to register a significant increase are “White Others” and “All Others”. White Others now represent more than one in six White births. The parents come from almost every White country, although Poles and Romanians are the largest single nationalities represented.

All Others is a compendium into which the ONS has lumped together the following census categories – Black Other, Asian Other, Arab, Chinese, Uncategorised and Mixed Race (the latter has four sub-categories which probably account in total for at least half of this “All Others” category).

20142019Change
Number%ageNumber%age%age
Total694,610640,000-8.0
White British436,05462.8374,00058.4-14.2
White Other68,8049.978,19212.2+13.6
Bangladeshi9,7641.49,5051.5-2.6
Indian22,2173.220,6273.2-7.2
Pakistani28,6454.127,5734.3-3.7
Black African23,1763.321,5893.4-6.8
Black Caribbean5,9900.95,4800.9-8.5
All Others73,30810.677,38712.9+5.6
Not Stated26,6523.825,5784.0-4.0

The main non-White ethnicities have all registered a decline, significant in the case of Indians (down 7.2%) and Black Africans (down 6.8%).  In the case of the Bangladeshis and Black Caribbeans it is statistically insignificant because births in those communities are in low numbers. In the case of the Black Caribbeans – or “West Indians” as we used to call them – they are a vanishing breed, declining towards extinction as they mix and mingle with others, mostly Whites, but they have the consolation, if they need it, that their populations at home remain intact.

No such consolation for us. White British births, which had already been declining in the years leading up to 2014, have crashed in the succeeding five years by no fewer than 62,000 – some 13.6% – accounting for more than the entire drop in birth numbers. It is remarkable that the death spiral that is White British births, is never reported or remarked upon in the main-stream media. Unless its to demonize anyone that does sound the alarm, why is that ?

Although the figures for 2020 will not be published until the latter part of this year, we already know that the total number of births is about 20,000 down on 2019, and it would be no surprise if once again the fall is due wholly to a drop in White British numbers. Births in 2020 were the result of conceptions occurring almost entirely before the first lockdown began in late March; it has been forecast by immigration specialist Professor Jonathan Portes of King’s College, London, that due to the employment uncertainties arising from lockdown, total births in 2021 will drop to little more than 450, 000.

One consequence of this consistently low birth rate is that twenty years hence there is likely to be a severe shortage of new young trainees and employees. The Government’s new “points-based” immigration policy, allowing high and medium skilled immigration without limit of number is thus perfectly placed to oblige employers because, to quote Migrationwatch UK, the policy is “a complete surrender to big business.” The open door to Hong Kong, described as “reckless” (Migrationwatch again) will also play a role.

mmigration is the first recourse of government to supply labour shortages – much is made, by successive governments, of “training and skills” but little ever transpires because it is quicker and cheaper to open the borders. Employers likewise turn at once to immigration to solve their recruitment difficulties; a survey by Migrationwatch showed that, pre-covid, the majority of employers turned to immigration to fill vacancies before considering other courses. It need not be so; we should perhaps consider whether the endless growth of the economy should always come first. If the economy must come first, then technological innovation should be encouraged to plug gaps in the labour supply, and young people directed away from degrees in the social sciences towards (for example) training in the building trades.

But why has our birth-rate dropped so dramatically, and can anything be done to reverse the situation? Falling birth-rates are more or less universal in developed countries and the process is at its most extreme in the far east where, in South Korea, it has fallen as low as 0.86 children per woman compared with a replacement level of 2.1. (In England in 2019 the level was 1.6). Much of the blame is placed on feminism and the empowerment of women, but even in Iran – not usually regarded as a stronghold of feminism – the birth-rate is down to 1.7. The only part of the world where births are still rocketing is sub-Saharan Africa, and as “demography is destiny” the future statistically belongs to them.

The pro western governments of Hungary and Poland have introduced pro-natalist policies to encourage bigger families because they want to fill their countries with Hungarians and Poles rather than immigrants, and those policies are now (literally!) bearing fruit. Sadly, we cannot expect any foreseeable British government or indeed any other western state to do likewise, but there are communities in the developed West which thrive because they have an ideological commitment to big families ORDER15 has gone some way over the past 6 years to highlight those communities.

Jews outside of Israel suffer from a low birth-rate and extensive “marrying out”, but these problems do not afflict the Haredim, the ultra-orthodox, who have very strong family structures, many children, and never marry out. The late Paul Johnson, in his “History of the Jews” said that repeatedly in Jewish history it is the extremists who win because they survive and multiply while others fall away or die out, and that is happening again. “The Haredim are the future of the Jews” he wrote, and already the majority of Jewish weddings in the United Kingdom are Haredi. It is significant that the Haredim grow not only by outbreeding all other types of Jews but because their total commitment to an extreme version of Judaism is attractive to those who have been raised in more liberal versions of the faith.

Much the same applies to the Amish in North America with their idiosyncratic variety of Anabaptism. Like the Haredim, they have strong family structures, many children, they marry only within their faith, and they have the same rejection of many aspects of modern society. The Amish birth-rate is 5.3 children per woman and their community now numbers 350,000, mostly descended from 500 18th century settlers. Perhaps, if the Haredim are the future of Jewry, the Amish are the future of the Western man in North America?

What then of us? as we build our own ORDER15 Traditionalist society there is a great deal to be learnt from their staunch refusal to bend to the worst elements of modernism, and from the manner in which they build strong, enduring and rapidly growing communities. As we follow their example we, like them, should attract more and more of those who are eligible to join us attracted by an uncompromising commitment to an ideal traditionalist society.

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