Population Decline and the Great Economic Reversal

Reasons for the Population Decline

There is no question but that the populations of most European countries will decline in the next generation, and in the cases of Germany and Russia, the decline will be dramatic. In fact, the entire global population explosion is ending. In virtually all societies, from the poorest to the wealthiest, the birthrate among women has been declining. In order to maintain population stability, the birthrate must remain at 2.1 births per woman. Above that, and the population rises; below that, it falls. In the advanced industrial world, the birthrate is already suicidally below 2.1. In middle-tier countries such as Mexico or Turkey, the birthrate is falling but will not reach 2.1 until between 2040 and 2050. In the poorest countries, such as Bangladesh or Bolivia, the birthrate maybe falling, but it will take most of this century to reach 2.1. this disparity will have catastrophic effects not just for their own governments but their financial backers. ie the western tax payer.

The process is essentially irreversible. It is primarily forced by urbanization. In agricultural and low-level industrial societies, children are a productive asset. Children can be put to work at the age of 6 doing agricultural work or simple workshop labor. Children become a source of income, and the more you have the better. Just as important, since there is no retirement plan other than family in such societies, a large family can more easily support parents in old age.

In a mature urban society, the economic value of children declines. In fact, children turn from instruments of production into objects of massive consumption. In urban industrial society, not only are the opportunities for employment at an early age diminished, but the educational requirements also expand dramatically. Children need to be supported much longer, in most cases into their mid-20s. Children cost a tremendous amount of money with limited return, if any, for parents in the west the desire for the material world over rides all else . Thus, people have fewer children. Birth control provides the means to sustain this selfish utopia. For most hedonistic westerners a family of four children would be a financial & mental catastrophe. Therefore, women have two children or fewer, on average. As a result, the population contracts. Of course, there are other more sinister reasons for this decline in the west , but urban industrialism is vehicle used.

There are those and in growing number who foresee economic disaster in this process. the argument is that the contraction of the population, particularly during the transitional period before the older generations die off, will leave a relatively small number of workers supporting a very large group of retirees, particularly as life expectancy in advanced industrial countries increases. In addition, the debts incurred by the older generation would be left to the smaller, younger generation to pay off. Given this, the expectation is major economic dislocation. In addition, there is the view that a country’s political power will contract with the population, based on the assumption that the military force that could be deployed — and paid for — with a smaller population would contract. From a pro western prospective this is a suicidal disaster, not least because the vast majority of westerners are totally indifferent to the west’s future or lack of it. and those that are aware and alarmed simply don’t grasp the timing or the finality of it. ORDER15 goes some way to address this even to the point of offering cash incentives to members. The Hungarian government also recently providing money and support for families willing to have more children. However we have already passed the tipping point. It can not be corrected. The only question is will the wider pro western camp wake up in time to the reality of it and adapt accordingly.

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